Inflation,growth, and distribution: The Brazilian economy after the post war

Abstract

Following Marglin and Bhaduri (1990 Marglin, S.A., and Bhaduri, A. “Profit Squeeze and Keynesian Theory.” In S.A. Marglin and J. Schor (eds.), The Golden Age of Capitalism. Reinterpreting the Postwar Experience. Oxford: Clarendon, 1990. [Google Scholar]), the purpose of this paper is to investigate empirically the interaction between income distribution and growth of aggregate demand during the 1951–89 period in Brazil. Applying Hein and Vogel’s (2008) methodology we conclude that the Brazilian economy showed a profit-led demand regime. In a context of high inflation, high concentration of markets, and wage control, retained profits were the main source to finance new capital. In this sense, we found a large sensitivity of investment relative to the wage share, a result that is compatible with a consumption pattern based on high income, which supported the growth trend with low wages observed during the period.     

债务融资的资产替代效应及其实证检验

在提出一种资产替代效应检验方法的基础上,对中国上市公司债务融资的资产替代效应的存在性、行业差异和年度差异进行实证检验,结果发现：随着长期借款的增加,风险资产也相应地增加,即债务融资的资产替代效应是存在的;在17个行业中,有14个行业都存在资产替代效应,而且不同行业的资产替代效应系数存在较大的差异;从1993—2013年共二十一年中,有十七年都存在资产替代效应,但不同年度的资产替代效应系数差异不大。     

转型经济体的巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应

在总结巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应理论和相关研究成果的基础上,通过时间序列折线图的初步直观描述,再运用面板数据协整检验方法,对12个高增长的转型经济体样本期间的实际汇率与相对人均产出序列是否存在协整关系进行了实证检验。检验结果显示,样本期实际汇率与相对人均产出之间的协整关系成立。这表明,实现经济转型后的高增长转型经济体的实际汇率与相对人均产出之间存在着稳定的内在关联关系,其实际汇率基本变动趋势可由相对生产率的变动所解释。     

Do Imported Commodities Cause Inflation in China? An Armington Substitution Elasticity Analysis

Based on the perspective of Armington substitution elasticity, this article researches the price transmission effect of China’s imported commodities. First, this article focuses on the theory of Armington substitution elasticity of nonhomogeneous products and then estimates the overall level of Armington substitution elasticity of China’s imported commodities. Second, this article studies the fluctuation trend in Armington substitution elasticity’s estimations using a state space model. The results of this article indicate that the value of Armington substitution elasticity of China’s imported commodities is negative and decreased significantly after the international financial crisis, which means that the relationship between China’s imported commodities and domestic products is complementary rather than substitutional. Moreover, this article finds evidence of the price transmission effect in China’s imported commodities. However, this effect is not obvious and weakened after the international financial crisis. Finally, we conclude that, if it wishes to prevent serious inflationary problems in China, the Chinese government should pay attention to the price of domestic products instead of focusing on the hazards of imported inflation (deflation).     

Multifactor CES general equilibrium: Models and applications

Sector-specific multifactor CES elasticities of substitution and the corresponding productivity growth are jointly measured by regressing the growth of per-factor cost shares against the growth of factor prices. We use linked input-output tables for Japan and the Republic of Korea as the data source for factor price and cost shares in two temporally distant states. We then construct a multisectoral general equilibrium model using the system of estimated CES unit cost functions and evaluate the economy-wide propagation of an exogenous productivity stimulus in terms of welfare. Further, we examine the differences between models based on a priori elasticities such as Leontief and Cobb-Douglas.     

Estimating the elasticity of intertemporal substitution taking into account the precautionary savings motive

This paper estimates the elasticity of intertemporal substitution for U.S. aggregate time series data, taking into account the precautionary savings motive. By making use of a recursive utility function, we estimate an Euler equation, via GMM. This procedure leads consumption growth rate to depend on asset returns, and on a time-varying variance, which captures the precautionary motive. When significant, the elasticity of intertemporal substitution estimates ranges from 0.4 to 1.8, which are higher than most of the results found in the literature. Furthermore, the evidence suggests that consumers react to risk; however, the contribution of precautionary motive to consumption growth seems to be limited.     

ENDOGENOUS FLEXIBILITY IN THE FLEXIBLE MANUFACTURING SYSTEM

We investigate the flexible manufacturing system (FMS) by using the spatial price discrimination framework of Pal. The degree of flexibility when producing variants can be increased by increasing the investment or production cost and is endogenously determined. Our result is that private incentives for increasing flexibility are excessive from a social welfare perspective.     

Influences on coastal tourism demand and substitution behaviors from climate change impacts and hazard recovery responses

Climate change impacts can negatively affect tourism demand and, subsequently, local economies by disrupting access and altering physical conditions, including those from adaptation and recovery efforts. Research is needed that helps destinations become more climate ready, including studies of decision factors that influence trip-taking behaviors. This paper presents findings from a discrete choice experiment to determine how physical and economic changes could affect visitation behaviors to a vulnerable coastal destination, the Outer Banks region of North Carolina, USA. We embedded our experiment within an on-site visitor survey to reveal thresholds of negative changes to coastal attributes that tourists are willing to tolerate, and also examined tourists’ willingness to substitute their future trips to the region. Transportation-related changes had the highest relative importance among the four selected attributes. The likelihood of three types of spatial substitution, spurred by not being able to access the destination, were consistently related to residency but less consistently related to place meanings, visitation history, and other demographic variables. Study results can inform climate change planning within coastal zones to minimize negative impacts to tourism demand, such as the need to develop creative revenue streams to maintain resilience in communities that rely on occupancy taxes.     

外商在华直接投资与中美贸易平衡问题

文章研究发现:(1)中国对外商品出口、从外商品进口分别与外商在华直接投资之间没有稳定的协整关系,但是存在有外商在华直接投资变动到中国对外贸易(出口、进口)发展变动的单向因果关系.(2)在95%置信水平下中国对美商品出口、对美贸易顺差分别与外商在华直接投资之间存在有双向影响关系,这与依据美国统计的月度数据计量的结论是相一致的.(3)外商在华投资企业和中资企业共同生产和出口美国必需的劳动密集型、资本密集和技术成熟型产品.美中贸易逆差属于互补性商品贸易逆差,已超越中美两国贸易范围,很大程度上是由外商在华直接投资包括美国在华直接投资所产生的贸易逆差转移和贸易替代效应造成的.     

承接国际外包扩大了我国相对工资差距吗？

本文引入技术劳动与非技术劳动的替代弹性,以发展中国家为视角构建了外包影响工资差距的理论模型,认为承接生产价值链高端生产环节外包扩大了我国技术劳动与非技术劳动的相对工资差距。在此基础上,对我国21个省份1999—2008年工资差距进行面板数据计量分析,研究表明：承接全球价值链高端环节的外包、R＆D投入、高技术产品进出口、经济发展水平都会影响工资差距;而物质资本投入、FDI等不会扩大工资差距。为了促进产业升级、调整经济结构和缩小工资差距,应该更加重视对技术劳动要素的培育。